Post-Election Thoughts From Brussels

It would be churlish, caddish, to kick someone when they’re down. It would be mean to react to the results of Theresa May’s snap election with a resounding HAHAHAHAHA. And so, I will hold back, and chortle silently into my sleeve at my desk here in Brussels, instead.

“Did somebody say ‘hung parliament’?”

A Hung Parliament

After a night spent sitting up to watch the results come in, I am now hanging as badly as our parliament, or, indeed, as badly as Theresa May’s credibility in Brussels. However, it looks as if the Conservatives will cling on to power, with Theresa May at the helm, propped up by the DUP. The DUP’s apparent condition for their support is that Northern Ireland will not get any special treatment in a Brexit deal. Sporting of them to want to be screwed as hard as the rest of us.

Aside from Schadenfreude and Fremdschämen at the Tories losing their majority, there are scant reasons for liberal-minded voters to be cheered by the result. Yes, Labour won more seats under Jeremy Corbyn than under Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband; however, they are still about 60 seats short of a majority. The only way to see it as a good result for Labour is to reflect on how low expectations were at the start of the campaign. Managing expectations has played a role on both sides: despite becoming the biggest party, the Conservatives pitched too high, and made it seem as if anything short of a landslide would be a disappointment. Labour on the other hand was expected to do badly, but instead managed to gain a number of seats. Still, not enough. Meanwhile the Lib Dems and SNP do not hold enough seats between them to prop up a government of progressive alliance with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. Whichever way you cut it, we will still have a Conservative government led by Theresa May.

A slightly saggy and bloated-looking map of the UK election results

North of the Border

As mentioned in a previous post, the political situation in Scotland is different from that in England. The SNP held 56 out of Scotland’s 59 seats following the 2015 election; this has been slashed to 35. After years of returning only one MP north of the border, the Conservatives have gained several seats in Scotland including, it irks me to say, my own constituency. Rest assured my pen is a-quiver as I write to congratulate my new MP and ask politely how he plans to champion my rights as a UK citizen living in an EU country. Rest assured I will share his reply.

What is frustrating is that, in many seats where the SNP were unseated by the Conservatives, the difference  was adequately made up by those who voted for Labour and the Lib Dems. So much for voting tactically. In these cases a vote for the SNP would have helped Jeremy Corbyn more than a vote for Labour. Still, not to be helped.

Jean-Claude Juncker showing how much confidence he has in Theresa May’s chances of getting a good Brexit deal

Where Does This Leave Brexit?

The European Commission has reacted with dismay at the fact that they are still unclear who they’ll be negotiating Brexit with. It is no secret that they would have preferred to be dealing with a Prime Minister who represented a firm majority of whatever colour. A Prime Minister with a broad enough support base would have felt more confident making concessions. A Prime Minister clinging to the flimsiest of mandates is more likely to be captive to the demands of ever smaller sections of her own party. If Theresa May is forced to demand things from the EU which are unworkable, simply because she fears the rebelliousness of the hard Brexit right of her party, then the chances of talks collapsing are increased.

Another unfortunate outcome of this election result is that most likely we have not seen the last of the Three Stooges, the Brexit clowns, David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris J*hnson. Fearful of angering their supporters in her party, May will be unable to consign them to the political bin, where they have long belonged. Interestingly it was Davis who said, on election night, that if the Conservative majority had been badly reduced, then this was a sign that voters did not support the Tory vision for Brexit. He dropped a saucy hint that remaining in the Single Market might now be an option.

The Three Brexiteers. Humpty, Dumpty and Numpty.

So there is that to hope for. Here in Brussels, one can only look on aghast. The uncertainty and stability caused by the Brexit vote a year ago has continued unabated. So much for strong and stable government. A humiliated Theresa May will now have to show up at the negotiating table, in full knowledge that her credibility is in tatters. We shall see what kind of a Brexit deal that ends up getting us.

It seems needless to add that all this could have been avoided if the British public had voted differently a year ago on 23rd June 2016.

R.

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